Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-02-16 5.170697 6.168501 7.273841 8.584430 10.091031 11.763665 13.755877
2025-02-23 3.367929 4.609867 6.146193 8.164622 10.722260 13.829081 17.859132
2025-03-02 2.287612 3.548738 5.270136 7.740895 11.136814 15.573804 21.730069
2025-03-09 1.700627 2.949825 4.808222 7.683825 11.910903 17.768358 26.339301
2025-03-16 1.276764 2.460727 4.368312 7.527318 12.454566 19.638148 30.635040
2025-03-23 1.080819 2.278735 4.342164 7.954623 13.863805 22.831536 37.050552
2025-03-30 0.879961 2.030195 4.146713 8.057132 14.750129 25.296705 42.572393
2025-04-06 0.713932 1.799954 3.930350 8.073163 15.470676 27.538827 47.902493
2025-04-13 0.579821 1.595823 3.716876 8.048231 16.096639 29.656349 53.169532
2025-04-20 0.532913 1.571436 3.846705 8.669620 17.904211 33.840036 62.035750
2025-04-27 0.461829 1.469331 3.795556 8.927681 19.071406 37.022178 69.456227
2025-05-04 0.407020 1.392201 3.781904 9.253121 20.386208 40.542840 77.657216
2025-05-11 0.334675 1.248745 3.599211 9.218145 21.041252 43.012074 84.341850
2025-05-18 0.261935 1.077941 3.316331 8.925041 21.158995 44.531642 89.501831
2025-05-25 0.199614 0.912982 3.008227 8.521089 20.997257 45.510662 93.757073
2025-06-01 0.163259 0.819790 2.865852 8.478322 21.579896 47.930784 100.774930
2025-06-08 0.130109 0.722329 2.687103 8.314912 21.876891 49.809510 106.895661
2025-06-15 0.119257 0.709752 2.754064 8.782430 23.620210 54.663295 118.898768
2025-06-22 0.101436 0.658311 2.689706 8.894886 24.560910 57.955619 128.083136
2025-06-29 0.084592 0.602082 2.596022 8.912665 25.279923 60.838198 136.628506
2025-07-06 0.069838 0.547234 2.492556 8.885662 25.886277 63.521825 144.924414
2025-07-13 0.067619 0.559464 2.627164 9.561453 28.264704 70.095361 161.293069
2025-07-20 0.059949 0.536037 2.627370 9.841929 29.687658 74.704517 173.926116